سرگرمی

How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained

Buy my book Humble Pi now!
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UPDATE: Harvard Book Store have totally sold out.
My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store:
www.harvard.com/event/virtual_event_matt_parker/
Here is the original accusation against Dream.
Video: irmys.info/more/YoGKsHGAm612km0/fy-lm-h-y.html&ab_channel=Geosquare
Paper: mcspeedrun.com/dream.pdf
And here is Dream's reply.
Video: irmys.info/more/Zp2iqYumhrediYo/fy-lm-h-y.html&ab_channel=DreamXD
Paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1yfLURFdDhMfrvI2cFMdYM8f_M_IRoAlM/view
"Matt flips a coin 100 times."
irmys.info/more/iWaJraGoaZimnn4/fy-lm-h-y.html
"Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record"
content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html
Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547
www.statista.com/statistics/221031/total-worldwide-casinos-by-region/
Roulette records.
www.roulette17.com/stories/record-reds-blacks-in-a-row/
CORRECTIONS
- At 09:08 I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up.
- At 25:27 I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number.
- I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at 33:47 (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!
Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode.
www.patreon.com/standupmaths
As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream.
www.janestreet.com/
Endless filming by Matt Parker
Editing by Alex Genn-Bash
Some graphics by Ben Sparks
Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: standupmaths.com/
US book: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-paperback

نظر 

  1. Stand-up Maths

    Stand-up Maths

    پیش 28 روز

    I’m not commenting on how many takes that took. But feel free to guess! (And if you must know: the complete footage of every attempt will be uploaded to Patreon. patreon.com/standupmaths )

    • Charske Vlogs

      Charske Vlogs

      پیش 9 روز

      I wonder how long the bball thing took XD

    • kkmac

      kkmac

      پیش 9 روز

      @BlacksmithTWD These are all of the streams Dream did in 1 week, they are all uploaded on twitch

    • kkmac

      kkmac

      پیش 9 روز

      @TheAtheistPaladin I think 100 million absolute best case. Most likely, more like 1 trillion

    • Shaquille Oatmeal

      Shaquille Oatmeal

      پیش 9 روز

      @Douglas Morrison Probably did but he realized it would be good for the video so he re did it until he didn't smile.

    • Fred Scooby

      Fred Scooby

      پیش 9 روز

      I love minecraft, and find it too be highly mathematical, I am sure you found this to be true as well, I came for the math though and thanks. My fahter and I both actually love this game, we use the mathematics embedded in the game to create massive structures in Survival. And in doing so, we learned to count at incredibly fast rates, although, only usually based on 2 and 4 though, or sometimes 64 if we must. It has created an interesting view for myself, as I began to notice real mathematical patterns in the real world, which was really wild.

  2. Cum Socks

    Cum Socks

    پیش 11 دقیقه

    Fourteen seconds in and I'm already impressed.

  3. HallowedWeasel

    HallowedWeasel

    پیش 17 دقیقه

    This reminds me of a quote from Star Trek DS9: "I believe in coincidences. Coincidences happen every day. But I don't trust coincidences."

  4. Jonathan Poole

    Jonathan Poole

    پیش 56 دقیقه

    Something about the way you explained the human seconds thing suddenly demystified how compensating for things in stats works. I think taking it to the extreme like that helps show what you're actually trying to do when you account for things. I've only ever been taught stats with the purpose of learning the equations for exams so this is actually really quite enlightening. Still hate how fuzzy it is and do not regret my choice to work with computers though. :P

  5. Conner Canales

    Conner Canales

    پیش ساعت

    10 minuets in im guessing it now hes got a mirror to make those shots

  6. Abhijit Prajapati

    Abhijit Prajapati

    پیش ساعت

    yayyyy!!! 2 of my favorite youtubes

  7. Eli Kanavaros

    Eli Kanavaros

    پیش 2 ساعت

    The problem with the craps calculation is that not all runs went on to be completed.

    • Eli Kanavaros

      Eli Kanavaros

      پیش 2 ساعت

      @thefizzydude I'm saying because he did the record calculation given an estimate of the set of all runs instead of the set of all runs completed the probability of the record will be way higher.

    • thefizzydude

      thefizzydude

      پیش 2 ساعت

      They're such an anomaly though, even including them the odds are negligible at best

  8. Clarice Tayag

    Clarice Tayag

    پیش 3 ساعت

    The wry book diagnostically repeat because support prospectively stamp given a sudden pastry. married, judicious archeology

  9. Marcus Mysteriously

    Marcus Mysteriously

    پیش 4 ساعت

    What are the odds of _tying_ 7 times in a row in Rock Paper Scissors?

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 4 ساعت

      One in 2187. Ish. People don't select their hands entirely at random, after all. Might be vaguely of interest that it's the same probability as winning 7 times in a row and losing 7 times in a row.

  10. Obi Wan Cannabi

    Obi Wan Cannabi

    پیش 4 ساعت

    I worked out how many outakes it must have taken for all that to have happened Spoiler it was alot

  11. Marcus Mysteriously

    Marcus Mysteriously

    پیش 4 ساعت

    I got two Chancey's in one Safari Zone run yesterday. That's pretty rare.

  12. Cat

    Cat

    پیش 5 ساعت

    Imagine if these people actually added an extra 0 somewhere on accident and dreams probability was actually only 1 in 1000 or something like that.

    • Cat

      Cat

      پیش 4 ساعت

      @Athenri yeah i know it would just be funny if it happened

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 4 ساعت

      nah, it's pretty straightforward to do the math. That's the great thing about math when done right - people can verify that your calculations are: - the right thing to calculate - done right.

  13. Rob

    Rob

    پیش 5 ساعت

    Dig the beard

  14. Cristian Alexandru Cojoc

    Cristian Alexandru Cojoc

    پیش 5 ساعت

    as a profesional coin fliper i can flip the coin a few times until i can manage to flip it and make one side get a higher number for one side than the other

  15. lotsofotherstuff

    lotsofotherstuff

    پیش 5 ساعت

    This is what I expected MatPats video to be but maybe I have my hopes too high

  16. Wingate Crawford

    Wingate Crawford

    پیش 5 ساعت

    That book throw @17:20 is so clean, Matt must be hacking

  17. TheRealKirby

    TheRealKirby

    پیش 6 ساعت

    Didn't Dream say that they were his 6 *luckiest* streams, and not 6 streams *in a row* ?

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 4 ساعت

      Like crash mentioned they were his luckiest streams but they also were in a row. He took a break after 5 as he was getting frustrated with his luck then a while later starts again and his luck is through the roof.

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 5 ساعت

      I believe they were 6 streams in a row. There were a total of 11. The first 5 happened before he took a break from speedrunning.

  18. Jannik M. Meissner

    Jannik M. Meissner

    پیش 6 ساعت

    obviously a century is pi billion seconds, I mean, earth rotates around the sun - but did you account for leap years and the adjustments made to correct time deviation from the fact that a day takes just ever so slightly less than 24h?

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 5 ساعت

      @Jannik M. Meissner And I understand that! It feels like it *should* be natural. It's totally coincidental, but it feels so right.

    • Jannik M. Meissner

      Jannik M. Meissner

      پیش 5 ساعت

      @Athenri good point, that is where my thinking went wrong… it just feels so right 😂

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 5 ساعت

      @Athenri Can you tell me more or link me to a video you think is good about the 24 hour clock being a historical accident? Sound like a fun and interesting thing. Maybe even a subject for minutephysics or numberphile.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 5 ساعت

      The earth could also rotate slower or faster and have the same orbit period.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 5 ساعت

      @Jannik M. Meissner yes, but we didn't *have* to make days 86400 seconds. That's basically an arbitrary number that comes from a 24 hour clock (historical accident) and dividing each hour into 3600 seconds. We could just as well have had a 30 hour clock. Then pi billion seconds wouldn't have been anywhere close to a century.

  19. raffikkiz

    raffikkiz

    پیش 7 ساعت

    Not exactly the same, but in essence this is the same kind of math that disproves evolution. The universe isn’t old enough to allow the odds of life happening accidentally or naturally -whichever you prefer

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 4 ساعت

      You seem to be talking about biogenesis and not evolution. Evolution is as much a scientific fact as gravity. As for biogenesis, how do you know that it’s impossible? Have you crunched the numbers and compared the chance of proteins forming against the number of opportunities? You also need to account for the fact that there are potentially other ways life formed in a different way to us, otherwise your paining your target around your dart. We also have no way of knowing if our universe is the first or only in which case biogenesis is not only likely but in inevitable to occur.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 6 ساعت

      The only thing it disproves is that creationists know what they're doing.

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 6 ساعت

      Evolution doesn't state how life began. Simply how species, well... evolve. But I'd love to take a look at the paper in question.

  20. jake Mate

    jake Mate

    پیش 7 ساعت

    When you have nothing better to do but to complein about somone half your age playing a game you dont regularly play

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 6 ساعت

      He's using math to come to a conclusion. He made a video about something that many people have requested. What about this is something you don't agree with?

    • Chicken Man

      Chicken Man

      پیش 7 ساعت

      He wasnt complaining, he was using the example as a tool to educate people on math and statistics.

  21. zoiuduu

    zoiuduu

    پیش 9 ساعت

    what are the odds of someone reading my comment after 1 month?

    • zoiuduu

      zoiuduu

      پیش 6 ساعت

      @Athenri well then my chances were improved, i mean they already are 100% since u read my comment lol

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 6 ساعت

      @zoiuduu This video is a bit unique since there's a bunch of mathy guys in here trawling "newest" to beat up Dream fans with stats and take their lunch money.

    • zoiuduu

      zoiuduu

      پیش 6 ساعت

      @Athenri 1 month after the video was posted, i didnt even imagined the other option lol, but thanks

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 8 ساعت

      Depends, do you mean in one month from now or since it's been one month since the video was posted

  22. OrangeFreeman

    OrangeFreeman

    پیش 9 ساعت

    О, повезло, повезло

  23. Cookie Virus

    Cookie Virus

    پیش 9 ساعت

    This is the best way in understanding math more with popular topics

  24. Thomas George

    Thomas George

    پیش 10 ساعت

    That depends on if you understand how random number generation is happening. If I take that the random number generation is based on time. Then it would be possible to calculate when would be the best time.

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 4 ساعت

      The amount of white noise created by world rng makes this impossible and even if it were there’s no way you’d achieve it outside of a set seed run, and even then it would take impossibly high precision that only a tas would be capable of, and even then Dream would need to provide an explanation for how he was doing it for the run to be verified.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 9 ساعت

      It isn't. Also, if Dream had found a way to game the RNG, he should have used that as his defense for why he was getting so many drops and not "nah, this luck is not that rare"

  25. muffty halbgar

    muffty halbgar

    پیش 10 ساعت

    The very last seconds got me cracked up. :D

  26. Juancho Gonzalez

    Juancho Gonzalez

    پیش 10 ساعت

    Great video earned a sub

  27. tristan flodin

    tristan flodin

    پیش 12 ساعت

    If the randomness is based on time like it is in many games, it can be gamed

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 4 ساعت

      The amount of white noise created by world rng makes this impossible and even if it were there’s no way you’d achieve it outside of a set seed run, and even then it would take impossibly high precision that only a tas would be capable of, and even then Dream would need to provide an explanation for how he was doing it for the run to be verified.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 12 ساعت

      A little more complex. It defines a seed based on time. That seed progresses every time it's triggered by something to a new value that you can't predict. In the nether, where you're going to be doing this, the lava will be triggering the seed thousands of times each second, making it completely impossible to aim at any value.

  28. bro wtf

    bro wtf

    پیش 13 ساعت

    that feeling when you don't understand what the person is saying anymore but you're still listening with a smile as if you understood what they're saying

  29. Not Holdini

    Not Holdini

    پیش 14 ساعت

    “He’s not cheating he’s just really good”-Any Dream Stan

  30. Deniel Liusinskij

    Deniel Liusinskij

    پیش 14 ساعت

    love how people think he cheats when he streams all of his speedrunning and he makes random seed worlds

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 9 ساعت

      Let's say I create a mod that's embedded within one of the allowed mods. This mod makes pearl drops 3 times more likely and gives blaze rod drops a boost too. I stream this all, doing everything else normally. Random world, etc. How would be streaming this verify me being legit?

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 13 ساعت

      That's why it was easy to see that he was cheating, yes.

  31. Faire Play

    Faire Play

    پیش 15 ساعت

    An event so big and controversial had Matt do the math. I wouldn't be surprised if Tom thought about doing the computer science behind it. What a world~ Or the things I might not have known

  32. King Jack 2000

    King Jack 2000

    پیش 15 ساعت

    I'm not sure if you will read this but if you compared this with another speed runners numbers

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 8 ساعت

      The mods' original paper did do this. I believe they compared it to some runs of Illumina.

  33. Hippolippo

    Hippolippo

    پیش 16 ساعت

    Wait you wrote humble pi! I loved that book so much! (Will there be a sequel?)

    • Hippolippo

      Hippolippo

      پیش 7 ساعت

      @crash yeah I saw that which is why I first got the book

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 8 ساعت

      He did a great google talk promoting this book and telling stories he couldn't get in the book.

  34. MLIFF

    MLIFF

    پیش 16 ساعت

    What blows my mind is that, even with these odds, he still only got the 4th fastest Speerund. How is that even possible? :D

  35. Burn Stick

    Burn Stick

    پیش 16 ساعت

    I'm sorry but for me thats not really scientific what you are doing. You just went ahead and disregarded completely all of the arguments from dream just because it was written angrily? Seriously? I mean the point of the paper was not to show that the number was possible but that the number itself is calculated wrongly. So everything you did was "ohh this number is impossible to achieve. Whats that? It's disputed? Ohh i don't care".

    • Burn Stick

      Burn Stick

      پیش 7 ساعت

      @Athenri ohh i see

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 7 ساعت

      @Burn Stick Part of the issue with Dream's expert's math is that he often doesn't show exactly what he did - but you can tell from the result that something went bonkers, but unless you go through what he *says* he should be doing, you can't actually see that it's wrong.

    • Burn Stick

      Burn Stick

      پیش 7 ساعت

      ​@Athenri okay i didn't know dreams expert did his math wrong (which I would have expected to be criticized in a video about this topic). Now I actually fully understood what Matt did (I thought he only corrected partially (due to the assessment from the "expert")) and this now sounds way worse for dream. thanks for the explanation

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 7 ساعت

      @Burn Stick No problem. I'll try to give you a really succinct brief on it. They both (roughly) agree on the massive number 1 in 20 sextillion. Dream's expert doesn't agree that the binomial distribution is accurate for pearl trades (it is - it is in fact about equivalent to Dream's expert's Barter Stopping Simulation over the 22 runs or so where he actually does pearl trades) But you always have to correct for biases when doing statistics. It's rare for a *particular* person to win the lottery, but not rare that *someone* wins the lottery. So maybe Dream is just the lucky person among the many trying, right? And maybe there are also multiple ways to get lucky, and not just Ender Pearls and Blaze Rods. Painstakingly correcting for these biases (honestly, overcorrecting), the mod team pushes that probability down from 1 in 20 sextillion to 1 in 7.5 trillion that *any* speedrunner in the top 1000 would *ever* experience this kind of luck in *any* two variables. Dream's expert then does his own math. Some of it is wrong, some of it is ludicrous, and a lot of it is certainly overcorrecting to an even more absurd extent than the mod team did. He ends up with a final probablity of one in ten million that *any speedrunner would ever have this kind of luck in any two variables*. That's still, in my book, indicative of cheating, and if I only had Dream's expert's report, I'd have thought Dream was cheating too. Along comes Matt. Matt says "Well, instead of digging into whether we should correct for top thousand or top ten thousand players, whether we should include the old runs or not include the old runs, whether we should correct for 10, 20, 40, or 100 different ways to get lucky - how about we roll all the way back to the one in 20 sextillion? That's the raw probability of Dream's luck or better occurring to a specific person in one trial. That's before they start disagreeing on how to correct for biases etc." And that's when he points out that *even if we take some event that every single human on earth can do every single second for a century*, we still get nowhere close to enough events to expect even a single person to ever experience this kind of luck.

    • Burn Stick

      Burn Stick

      پیش 8 ساعت

      @Athenri ohhh i didn't knew there were 2 big numbers. My mistake

  36. Joshua Gavaghan

    Joshua Gavaghan

    پیش 16 ساعت

    7:17 meta dude.

  37. Azlan Shah

    Azlan Shah

    پیش 16 ساعت

    That basketball throw makes me like and subscribe

  38. William Lyon

    William Lyon

    پیش 17 ساعت

    Odds question!!! I called dice before I rolled them i said I would roll all 6s on my 6 dice, I understand the odds of that are low but didn’t it make the odds even crazier if you factor in me calling what it would be also?? I’m just curious if anyone can figure out for me the odds of me predicting the dice and rolling all 6s.

    • William Lyon

      William Lyon

      پیش 17 ساعت

      @Athenri thanks that seems pretty obvious now thanks a lot.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 17 ساعت

      Well, the probability is the same-ish whether or not you yell "I'ma get six sixes". The difference is that there are some other results that would normally be notable when you consider biases. Like let's say you're playing some game where *any* six of a kind is very valuable. Then clearly there are *six* ways to get that, and we need to adjust for that, because six sixes, six fives, six fours, six threes, six twos and six ones would all have been equally amazing results. In this case, you're locked specifically into that one, particular result, six sixes, so all we need to ask is "what's the probability of getting that particular result" There are 46656 different results when you roll six dice. You're interested in exactly *one* of them, so it would happen, on average, once in 46656 sets of six dice being thrown.

  39. LCB 444

    LCB 444

    پیش 17 ساعت

    Gooood explanation. Thank you !

  40. Vic Jang

    Vic Jang

    پیش 20 ساعت

    Murdered by a IRmys video. Thanks for making this. It was both educational and fun to watch. I already watched a few others take on this drama and reached the same conclusion, but your explanation and ability is top-notch.

  41. MonkeyMan075

    MonkeyMan075

    پیش 21 ساعت

    I saw the thumbnail and said bro is that Tom Segura

  42. Cody Taylor

    Cody Taylor

    پیش 22 ساعت

    Well as someone who doesn't really care either way i think this video is the end of the debate. Dream was not playing vanilla minecraft. I really wish he would just admit it but hey im not him i cant possibly understand what he actually did

  43. GamingJoey

    GamingJoey

    پیش 22 ساعت

    While I don't play minecraft, it seems like all these probability analysis are missing something important: random number generators in games are usually not very good and can cause unlikely streaks. And in some games, they are even possible to manipulate by doing specific actions within the game...

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 8 ساعت

      RNG manipulation is not possible in this version of minecraft. The mods actually went into this in their original paper, taking a look in the game code. And even if that was the case Dream could easily prove his innocence.

  44. liberosis

    liberosis

    پیش 23 ساعت

    man has a conjoined megaminx 17:16 edit: and what looks like a 7x7 18:06

    • Major

      Major

      پیش 20 ساعت

      Nice, a cuber

  45. Dn By

    Dn By

    پیش روز

    The Algorithum brought me here ............ 10 minutes in and I think im having a stroke ........ i dont understand a thing he's saying , but i cant move away and stop watching ...... must be a stroke..... send help !

  46. The Optic

    The Optic

    پیش روز

    When you're an old Numberphile fan and you rediscover Matt Parker.

  47. Nirvana Supermind

    Nirvana Supermind

    پیش روز

    Fun fact: I have over 1K

  48. piratestu

    piratestu

    پیش روز

    First and foremost, I believe in his premise and he's absolutely right and it was a good video...what made me cautious is at the start when he said he's a disinterested participant... That's also untrue. This is a piece of culture meant to entertain. He's a professional entertainer. He is paid to be entertaining. You cannot be disinterested when your pay is affected by the outcome of in this case is to probabilities. The 10 Billion Human Second Century was his thing to get the non statistic viewers aware, onboard, entertained. Again, I don't think his maths or anything was wrong and the video is good, I just wish he wouldn't state in his opening that he's unbiased, because he definitely is. Now shower me with dislikes, I feast upon them!

    • Jag Nit

      Jag Nit

      پیش 2 ساعت

      @piratestu bad take, boo

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 4 ساعت

      Bias describes having a preference for or prejudice against a particular party. Him getting paid by IRmys does not tangibly put him in favour of one party or another. He isn’t a fan of dreams, doesn’t really play Minecraft and isn’t a part of the community so he doesn’t have a dog in this fight.

    • piratestu

      piratestu

      پیش 11 ساعت

      @Athenri friend, I want you to think about something... you are white-knighting a guy who spent at least a third of his video talking about a bias in mathematicians but you can’t begin to think that person bringing it up could be biased themselves because they just said so at the beginning? I hope you enjoy the 3+ copies of his book he sold you and, if you’re interested, have I got some snake oil that you’d definitely be keen to know about.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 13 ساعت

      @piratestu man, that's the stupidest argument I've seen today, and I've seen a lot. More than matt is interested in scoring big on a video about potential cheating in Minecraft, he's interested in having integrity as a math person on the internet and among his mathematician friends.

    • piratestu

      piratestu

      پیش 14 ساعت

      @JuukaRock of course he can, but it doesn’t make him unbiased... now if he said he’s disinterested and all proceeds of this video will go to charity, then he can talk... until then he has a financial interest for the video to do well... and ask Fox News the best way to get eyes is to take the most outlandish option.

  49. Andrew Zeitler

    Andrew Zeitler

    پیش روز

    The seemly cowbell dfly sin because trout nationally reflect versus a truculent flugelhorn. pink, berserk indonesia

  50. Clockwork Kirlia

    Clockwork Kirlia

    پیش روز

    Magnificent editing, and really impressive composure. Oh, yeah, also, the maths was great! Really cleared this issue up for me, as a maths fan vaguely aware of the speedrunning Minecraft community.

  51. Ashe

    Ashe

    پیش روز

    Loved that flourish at the end

  52. Thomas Gray

    Thomas Gray

    پیش روز

    Would be interested to see how the odds fall for the other item dream got from the piglin barters, are they wildly low, are they about right, did all item get greatly reduced or was it the item in the same group as the ender pearls that took the loss.

  53. Rexy The T. Rex from Jurassic Park

    Rexy The T. Rex from Jurassic Park

    پیش روز

    Didn’t even need to watch half a minute to say this. Hypocrite.

    • Raymond Christopher Tanto

      Raymond Christopher Tanto

      پیش روز

      @morbideddie he is the hypocrite imagine having a name REXY THE TREX FROM JURRASIC PARK

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش روز

      Explain.

  54. Mickstache

    Mickstache

    پیش روز

    What happened to H John Benjamins deep gravely voice?

  55. RoomerJ

    RoomerJ

    پیش روز

    This is a months old story that's already been proven.

    • RoomerJ

      RoomerJ

      پیش 9 ساعت

      @OmegaAudio Don't want anything "from him". This junk popped up in my suggested videos. He needs to rethink doing viewer requests if his audience is this stupid

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش 18 ساعت

      Oh, I see what your saying, making a video on a topic that is both highly requested and still highly misunderstood by a large portion of people is not worthwhile for an education channel because it happened a little while ago. I'll go tell my history teacher to pack up things and find a new career.

    • OmegaAudio

      OmegaAudio

      پیش روز

      @RoomerJ He literally said he got a ton of requests for this subject, so he's answering the requests. The hell do you want from him?

    • Becky Brooks

      Becky Brooks

      پیش روز

      Is someone forcing you to watch it?

    • RoomerJ

      RoomerJ

      پیش روز

      @morbideddie3 weeks and this issue has been solved months before that...

  56. Georg Lehner

    Georg Lehner

    پیش روز

    If dream had only fudged the probabilty tables just slightly less, we wouldn't have this controversy and people might just say he got lucky. But he had to overdo it. And not even get the world record for it anyway...

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      Possibly - but then he might have had to play more before he had a lucky run good enough to make it, and then it would have been clear once more

  57. Stephen Robinson

    Stephen Robinson

    پیش روز

    17.17 boss throw?? We just gonna skip that and not say anything 👑😂

  58. Trash

    Trash

    پیش روز

    forsenCD just a dream

  59. Robert Lukotka

    Robert Lukotka

    پیش روز

    I was quite disappointed to find out that your reasoning is completely incorrect. If there is possible cherry-picking you have to factor it quite carefully. E.g. if you flip a coin 200 times, and you cherry-pick 100 heads you get an observation that is way more unlikely than your upper bound on what can actually happen. So your claim about 10 billion human second century is incorrect. I would say that it is a dangerous oversimplification. You should calculate each run separately 50 blaze kills -> 35 blaze rods and 44 barters into 7 pearl trades. This is approximately 0.0033 * 0.00373 which is approximately 0.00001 so if you try 100000 times you probably be able to cherry-pick this. And of course if you are really lucky you need much less tries (10000ish) and also several people are trying to do this. This is conceivable if this roll is at the start of the game but I doubt it is. I do not have enough knowledge about Minecraft to judge if this is conceivable.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 4 ساعت

      @Robert Lukotka And this is why we don't need to take you seriously, because you don't know the situation you're talking about. It's six consecutive live streams (i.e. there is no cherry-picking of lucky runs or bad runs involved, on either Dream's side or the mod team's side). I recommend that next time before you make a bombastic declaration of "your reasoning is completely incorrect" - you make sure that you actually know what you're talking about, because in this case you did not. Embarrassing.

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 5 ساعت

      @Robert Lukotka He was live-streaming. So there was no real bias for picking lucky runs. The video even went into trying to account for a bias of picking just the lucky runs. And this wasn't 6 runs either. They were 6 streams. about 24 hours of it. So I feel like with all considered, there is a large enough sample to base a conclusion out of.

    • Robert Lukotka

      Robert Lukotka

      پیش 6 ساعت

      @crash If you do not know how many runs were in-between that were not published (maybe due to bad result because of bad luck) you must consider them separately at least with respect to some aspects of the problem, otherwise you may end up in my coin flipping example evaluating an ordinary event as unrealistic. My claim is that if you make 100000 runs (probably less, there are more aspects that needs to be accounted for) and you pick 6 best ones, this is the expected outcome. This is far less tries than 10^-22 suggests.

    • crash

      crash

      پیش 8 ساعت

      Why do you need to calculate each run separately? The game doesn't care whether you log out, start a new world, or whatever. It's not like with the dice where getting 7 many times in a row is considered good. Getting a 7 50% of the time for instance with hundreds of rolls will be suspicious though. No matter if they happen all after one another or not.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      Yes, if someone is deceptively passing off non-consecutive runs as consecutive, you obviously can't use it as a measure for how likely a particular thing is to happen. That's a silly complaint.

  60. Dopefish

    Dopefish

    پیش روز

    statistics is bad math, learn calculus and linear algebra.

  61. Mikkel Ribjerg

    Mikkel Ribjerg

    پیش روز

    Wonderfully easy to understand, and somehow fun to watch throughout

  62. Prend Lala

    Prend Lala

    پیش روز

    I dont care about Minecraft, but that shot would be normally considered too lucky.

  63. David Mountain

    David Mountain

    پیش روز

    @Stand-up Maths: So here's a question: Do the intended probabilities work out as actual probabilities IRL - Computers have problems generating truly random numbers (I've heard) (Maybe this has been solved) is it possible that despite minecraft's published probabilities, a certain processor may generate less than random rolls in favor of a dream run (the equivalent of finding a randomly un-random dice) Perhaps it was played on a processor that had a fault that made it not as random as intended? Thoughts?

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 12 ساعت

      @morbideddie just adding to this - if he *did* have some kind of wild glitch that meant he wasn't playing the same kind of game as everyone else, that'd still not qualify for glitchless.

    • kep arani

      kep arani

      پیش روز

      Geosquare adressed this on his video

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش روز

      The RNG in 1.16 minecraft is generated at irregular intervals and is dictated by various factors in the game world which is itself randomly selected. The white noise present due to this makes the RNG effectively random in that it cannot be reasonably manipulated or predicted for either blaze rods or ender pearls. In effect this means it’s random. This is backed up by other runners and simulations showing drop rates in line with the numbers we would expect from random numbers. I’m no computer expert so it maybe possible that dream had a specific processor error that allowed his computer to run normally but happened to give him above average luck in the two items he needed. That said I think the chances of that happening are about as unlikely as him getting the luck he did in the runs.

  64. hog n dog

    hog n dog

    پیش روز

    For perspective: there are an est. 7.5x10^18 grains of sand on earth

  65. Charles Heaton

    Charles Heaton

    پیش روز

    Amazing video! The only thing I wish got covered, even a quick 5 second explanation would have been on the Random seed generation of minecraft ..... wouldnt the amount of probable worlds make the numbers come alittle closer to realtiy? Because as humans we only have ONE world we can all speed run at the same time :)

    • Charles Heaton

      Charles Heaton

      پیش روز

      Though I do realize that the things like the ender pearl and blaze rod chances are unaffected by the worlds terrain so maybe it doesnt matter..... thats why I asked haha

  66. Linus Brink

    Linus Brink

    پیش روز

    ...so you say there's a chance?

  67. Primordial 02

    Primordial 02

    پیش روز

    Why did I just watch this whole video at 4 am, I don’t even play minecraft, or do any sort of maths if I can help it

  68. trygswyrm woodside

    trygswyrm woodside

    پیش روز

    The whole point of that second article is just so the fans of one side have some lines to spam when they are talking about it in their online social groups. It's very obvious, but just one of those areas in modern day life where no one will admit the obvious. That 1 in 6300 line, even though it's an obvious simple math error, was probably done on purpose solely so 5,000 people would go to reddit and say "dude it's 1 in 6,300 chance, you really think a speedrunner hasn't run a game 6,300 times?" They know the error will come out eventually and they have an easy out to go "oops ya that's a simple error", but the damage is already done at that point. Propaganda has been spammed, brains have been changed.

  69. Dangerous 1A

    Dangerous 1A

    پیش روز

    Just realised that this guy is from "You Have Been Warned"

  70. Eli B

    Eli B

    پیش روز

    WTF??!!?!?!? 4TH?

  71. Rich Galante

    Rich Galante

    پیش روز

    Eyy pyraminxes in the background!

  72. Trias00

    Trias00

    پیش روز

    Pirate Princess Petunia, your name is awesome.

  73. NebelHose

    NebelHose

    پیش روز

    Algorithm

  74. Benoit Wautelet

    Benoit Wautelet

    پیش روز

    One thing still bugs me though, you said it yourself choosing the statistics to calculate after the event it's very easy to have "impossible" events. It's true that this is a case everyone considers lucky but for a game as complex as Minecraft, there is an astonishing great number of "lucky" cases. Maybe enough to compensate? I have no idea.

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      These things are corrected for in the original mod paper. Correcting for them, and for the fact that it could have been any speedrunner, yields roughly one in 7.5 trillion.

  75. Finlay Martins

    Finlay Martins

    پیش روز

    If there is anyone I'm going to trust in regards to this controversy, it this guy because not only does he know his stuff but as he mentions, he is completely objective and unbiased

  76. BigMace

    BigMace

    پیش روز

    HE DELETED HIS RESPONSE HAHAHHAHAHA

  77. Dr. Weird

    Dr. Weird

    پیش روز

    This guy watches Summoning Salt i think

  78. Not Serosh

    Not Serosh

    پیش روز

    my maths teacher told us to watch this for online school lol

  79. Nicklas Martos

    Nicklas Martos

    پیش روز

    The odds of dream getting these key outcomes is as likely as picking the right watermolecule in a glass of water or the right grain of sand in the entire Sahara desert on the first try. Everyone convicted on basis of fingerprints or DNA tests should be released long before we contemplate this level of luck

  80. Adam Hopkins

    Adam Hopkins

    پیش روز

    CPD (craps per decade) my new favorite statistic

  81. ThatOneInternetGuy

    ThatOneInternetGuy

    پیش روز

    Wait, you're telling me people are arguing over a *fourth place* run? Just have him do it again!

    • Jag Nit

      Jag Nit

      پیش 2 ساعت

      unrealistic results in 2 categories doesn’t affect a players skill or results in other categories, for instance, fortress generation, stronghold generation, eye of enders breaking, etc. it’s ignorant to assume that these two specific instances (blaze rod drops and eye of ended trades) would account for the entirety of the run

    • flawed

      flawed

      پیش روز

      he only got fourth place because one of the eyes of ender broke he wouldave gotten first otherwise

  82. Derploop

    Derploop

    پیش روز

    TBH, I don't think it matters. His content is still entertaining and he's still legitimately incredibly good at the game. If he took the 'any publicity is good pubilcity' approach, in this case I just don't care. I'm sure any drama was just Stans on Twitter, and we already know that website is a cesspool that you should never visit. I also don't really care is someone fakes a speedrun of a game that never should have been speedran in the first place. There are so many good elements of minecraft, and its speedrun potential has never been one of them, although its ability to be played as the player chooses to has always been one.

    • OmegaAudio

      OmegaAudio

      پیش روز

      so.....screw the entire community of people who DO genuinely care about minecraft speedrunning? That seems a little harsh just because that's not your interest.

    • Fluffy White Llama

      Fluffy White Llama

      پیش روز

      @Derploop Research on the whole Dream dilemma, thats what I meant. I agree with you that the luck factor can be pretty tedious in Minecraft speedrunning, but in my opinion that doesn't take away the fact that it's still a great game to speedrun. There are many brilliant strategies that can be used and new ones are always popping up. Minecraft really is a beautiful game where almost anything can be done, and some players like to choose the destination of speedrunning. I myself don't speedrun that often but I'm still intrigued by it. Props to you for being an old OG player too, that's pretty epic.

    • Derploop

      Derploop

      پیش روز

      @Fluffy White Llama research on what? I've played minecraft since about a week after rails released if that's what you mean? That's pre-alpha. So, I'd say I'm pretty experienced in the game and more than qualified to provide my opinion, which is that there are better features of minecraft than its questionable suitability for speedrunning. Minecraft has always been a journey before destination game for me, so while I respect that PvP minigames or speedrunning are a totally valid way to play an open ended game, they also make it closed ended, and that misses what makes the game so good in the first place, IMO.

    • Fluffy White Llama

      Fluffy White Llama

      پیش روز

      How much research have you done? This sounds like an echo of what Game Theory said

    • Magicmeatball

      Magicmeatball

      پیش روز

      All I hear is “I don’t understand anything about the subject but here’s what I think”

  83. Dream 2

    Dream 2

    پیش روز

    Hi

  84. DatFunniestChannel

    DatFunniestChannel

    پیش روز

    2540000th view

  85. StargazingStar

    StargazingStar

    پیش 2 روز

    Mark: "it's like Math's chaff" Me: *frantically googles the meaning of chaff*

  86. abbyatplay

    abbyatplay

    پیش 2 روز

    Keep the beard

  87. jesse wolford

    jesse wolford

    پیش 2 روز

    I was on dreams side after his video but after this I am convinced

  88. Lucas Torres

    Lucas Torres

    پیش 2 روز

    Don't worry Dream, I believe you're lucky enough *-*

  89. Jay

    Jay

    پیش 2 روز

    Well, I'm a researcher in cybersecurity, I must say your calculations are amazing. Something bothers me a little bit tho, especially since you mentioned Punch-Out. You know, Super Mario, Punch-Out and Metroid are all games where odds are being manipulated with the number of frames on the screen. It's not "like" cheating here, it's literally 100% cheating (on purpose) to achieve the desired chain of events. Unlike a game of dices, programming won't offer you the same platform for odds, especially when you stretch your numbers like the 1-century human seconds (which is absolutely fascinating btw thank you for that). I'm a huge fan of speedruns and one common "pattern" to beat the game is to find, well, a pattern quite literally, in the code to reproduce the same scenario over and over again.

    • crash

      crash

      پیش روز

      1.12 allowed RNG manipulation but 1.16 certainly doesn't. But if Dream actively did that, then he would be able to prove it.

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش روز

      That applies in normal games however in minecraft it’s not really achievable. It’s a random game seed and the rng has so much white noise it’s effectively impossible to manipulate.

  90. Phoenix D

    Phoenix D

    پیش 2 روز

    Amusing that he spends the first half of the video or so explaining the controversy and reviewing the papers, and then spends the next 10+ minutes just trying to explain to non-mathy folks, *just how insanely* unlikely those odds are.

  91. zerxis blances

    zerxis blances

    پیش 2 روز

    The probability of you're parents having you is unthinkable

    • Joaquin Martinez

      Joaquin Martinez

      پیش روز

      This is like saying to pick any random number, sure, it is a one in an infinite chance that you picked that number, but you were going to pick one.

    • morbideddie

      morbideddie

      پیش روز

      If I throw a dart out a plane and hit a bulls eye on the ground that’s a low probability. If I throw a dart out of a plane, find it and then paint a target around it that’s a 100% probability. You being born is the second scenario. If it weren’t you it would be some other combination of your parents DNA.

    • André Luis

      André Luis

      پیش روز

      Irrelevant. There are trillions of us and the concept of "you" is too abstract. Sure, the chance of someone exactly like you being born again are ridiculous, but there was no "you" measure before you were born, so it's not a relevant standard.

  92. Nuclear Lazer

    Nuclear Lazer

    پیش 2 روز

    Its actually 1 in 600 million said by ant venom

    • thefizzydude

      thefizzydude

      پیش 12 ساعت

      Since when was ant venom a respected mathematician?

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش روز

      Antvenom basically bends over backwards to fudge the numbers in favor of dream. His bias corrections are silly. Also, the one in 600 million he gets is "any livestreamer ever having been as lucky as Dream when you include the non sus set of runs"

  93. René Mouritsen

    René Mouritsen

    پیش 2 روز

    He is 100% cheating. Not even up to debate.

  94. azocrye

    azocrye

    پیش 2 روز

    you remind me of vsauce

  95. Albert Jachowicz-Brzeziński

    Albert Jachowicz-Brzeziński

    پیش 2 روز

    Me and my friends have a very unlucky run. We tried to speeddrun minecraft all together and we traded over 200 gold ingots. And got how many? 1 trade. So now we know that we were SERIOUSLY unlucky. And I mean, we knew it, but it's bad if we had a few promiles of chance for that.

    • Kiblord

      Kiblord

      پیش 19 ساعت

      We’re u in 1.16.3-1.16.5 because they changed pearl rates

    • Athenri

      Athenri

      پیش 2 روز

      Yeah, that's pretty unlucky. Around once in 1400 attempts you're going to get at least that screwed.

  96. Peruvator

    Peruvator

    پیش 2 روز

    Keep up the good work!!

  97. Stellar

    Stellar

    پیش 2 روز

    He wasn't cheating it's just his gaming chair.

    • Fluffy White Llama

      Fluffy White Llama

      پیش 2 روز

      Hilarious and original

  98. -ChrispyNi-

    -ChrispyNi-

    پیش 2 روز

    This man looks like Jim Carrey

  99. Christopher Birnbaum

    Christopher Birnbaum

    پیش 2 روز

    as someone who loves minecraft and stats this video was candy. glad to see you doing well on the channel. hope you didn't go mad with the reshoots for getting the trick shots!

  100. Kurt Gardner

    Kurt Gardner

    پیش 2 روز

    This video is even more entertaining to me now than if I watched it at first because I've just finished doing the Binomial Formula in further maths a couple of days ago

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